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Shown for context: across the scored record a launch inside five days was followed by a reset 33.3% of the time against 33.8% when none was live, so it does not move the number."},{"id":"drain_reports","label":"Reports that usage drained too fast","active":true,"since":"2026-08-31T16:29:03.000Z","weight":1,"evidenceUrl":"https://github.com/openai/codex/issues","observableBefore":"community_reports","note":"Driven by complaint volume. Read from newly opened issues on OpenAI's own public Codex repository, counted, never attributed to a person. Shown for context: the record is far too short to let it move the number."},{"id":"user_milestone","label":"An active-user milestone was reached","active":false,"since":null,"weight":1,"evidenceUrl":null,"observableBefore":"none","note":"The user count is disclosed only in the reset post itself. 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No news about Codex is implied.","modelVersion":"calibrated-baseline-v1","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2094251180121854309","sourcePublishedAt":"2026-08-31T02:29:25.303Z","windowEndsAt":null,"expiresAt":null,"h24":{"before":12,"after":12,"delta":0},"h48":{"before":35,"after":37,"delta":2}},{"id":"2026-08-31T09:02:04.896Z:action_claimed","at":"2026-08-31T09:02:04.896Z","factor":"Rolling recalculation","reason":"Time passed and nothing new was published. The window slid forward, older resets lost a little weight, and any live signal faded a little. No news about Codex is implied.","modelVersion":"calibrated-baseline-v1","sourceUrl":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2094251180121854309","sourcePublishedAt":"2026-08-31T02:29:25.303Z","windowEndsAt":null,"expiresAt":null,"h24":{"before":11,"after":12,"delta":1},"h48":{"before":35,"after":35,"delta":0}},{"id":"2026-08-31T08:17:01.126Z:action_claimed","at":"2026-08-31T08:17:01.126Z","factor":"Rolling recalculation","reason":"Time passed and nothing new was published. The window slid forward, older resets lost a little weight, and any live signal faded a little. No news about Codex is implied.","modelVersion":"calibrated-baseline-v1","sourceUrl":"https://resetbeacon.com/methodology/#measured","sourcePublishedAt":"2026-08-31T02:45:02.295Z","windowEndsAt":null,"expiresAt":null,"h24":{"before":9,"after":11,"delta":2},"h48":{"before":34,"after":35,"delta":1}},{"id":"2026-08-31T07:32:03.352Z:action_claimed","at":"2026-08-31T07:32:03.352Z","factor":"Rolling recalculation","reason":"Time passed and nothing new was published. The window slid forward, older resets lost a little weight, and any live signal faded a little. 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The window slid forward, older resets lost a little weight, and any live signal faded a little. No news about Codex is implied.","modelVersion":"calibrated-baseline-v1","sourceUrl":"https://resetbeacon.com/methodology/#measured","sourcePublishedAt":"2026-08-31T02:45:02.295Z","windowEndsAt":null,"expiresAt":null,"h24":{"before":8,"after":9,"delta":1},"h48":{"before":29,"after":32,"delta":3}}],"accuracyVerdict":{"passes":false,"verdictState":"warn","verdictLabel":"Below the constant benchmark"},"answer":{"state":"forecast","headline":"42% chance of a Codex reset within 48 hours","percent":42,"window":"within 48 hours","secondLine":"17% within 24 hours.","explanation":"Why: the calculation uses the measured record of past resets.","subject":"Possible Codex reset signal","preheader":"42% chance of a Codex reset within 48 hours — 17% within 24 hours.","ogAlt":"42% chance of a Codex reset within 48 hours","deadline":null,"tone":"neutral","sourcePostTimePacific":null,"posts":[]}}